2013 WNY Economic News

4th Quarter 2013

The national economy may finally have deviated from its slow growth path as third quarter real GDP growth came in at 4.1% in its final revision.  The unemployment rate has been reduced to 7% and payroll employment continues its steady growth but remains 1.29 million jobs below its January 2008 pre-recession peak.  The Federal Reserve announced on December 18 that it will begin the tapering process from its asset purchasing program. 

Locally, an increase in private sector employment has brought total employment back above pre-2008 recession levels.  Indeed, employment in the Buffalo MSA now is back to 2001 levels, a feat that had not been accomplished before the onset of the Great Recession. While the Buffalo region has rarely recovered more quickly, or as fully, as the rest of the nation following recent recessions, it appears that the region trailed the nation into the last recession, did not fall as deeply and began its recovery earlier that the rest of the country. 

Volume 17, no. 1 of the Western New York Economic Newsletter is attached.  If you have any questions, please call me at 716-888-2667 or Mark Zaporowski at 716-888-2679.

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3rd Quarter 2013

The Federal Reserve announced on September 18 that it will continue its quantitative easing program, surprising financial market’s that began to build into bond yields the expectation that the program’s end is approaching.  An increase in local private sector employment coupled with the increase in the labor force that occurred this last summer could indicate some strength in the Buffalo MSA. 

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2nd Quarter 2013

The BEA earnings report, which has historically served as the basis for our projection of the region’s economic health, has been released for the year 2011.  This issue of WNY Economic News focuses on the relationship between the regional economies of Western New York, the national economy and the international economy.  

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1st Quarter 2013

Despite an economy that was dead in the water during the fourth quarter of last year, it appears that the national economy avoided the double dip recession that seemed imminent in September 2011.  The national recovery has remained very sluggish however, as payroll employment has continued to increase but at a very slow pace while real GDP growth has averaged only 1.58% over the past four quarters.  The regional economy has had an upturn in total employment, which when combined with a second consecutive increase in earnings per worker could lead to the first positive regional trend since 2007.  

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Special Edition

The OMB report to the Congress on the Joint Committee sequestration for Fiscal Year 2013 states:

The Balanced Budget and Emergency Deficit Control Act, as amended (BBEDCA), 2 U.S.C. § 901a, requires the Office of Management and Budget (OMB) to calculate, and the President to order on March 1, 2013, reductions in budgetary resources triggered by the failure of the Joint Select Committee on Deficit Reduction to propose, and the Congress to enact, legislation to reduce the deficit by $1.2 trillion (Joint Committee sequestration)….OMB calculates that the Joint Committee sequestration requires a 7.8 percent reduction in non-exempt defense discretionary funding and a 5.0 percent reduction in non-exempt nondefense discretionary funding. The sequestration also imposes reductions of 2.0 percent to Medicare, 5.1 percent to other non-exempt nondefense mandatory programs, and 7.9 percent to non-exempt defense mandatory programs.

The special edition newsletter discusses potential vulnerabilities for state and local governments that might be the result of these cuts.

Download the Special Edition pdf here.